The Midterm Horse Race Six Months Out

Currently, Democrats hold the inside track for the House and the outside track for the Senate. In horse racing and politics, where you’re running matters; however, it’s no guarantee of where you’ll finish.
If there is anything that approaches being a “sure thing” in American politics, it’s that the president’s party loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Since 1926, there have been only three midterms where the president’s party did not lose seats in the House and Senate. With Bush in 2006 and Obama in 2014, the most recent administrations that faced second midterms, the president’s…
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