Recent polls indicate that Trump maintains a slight lead in the RealClearPolitics Polling Average. However, looking at polls for an election that is still five months out raises the question: Do early polls reliably predict the final election results? The short answer: They do – at least in recent U.S. presidential elections.
Looking at data from the past five presidential elections, every candidate who polled better in the national popular vote at the start of the election year won the national popular vote in November. There was never a change mid-election season where the person behind in…
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